地理资本视角下村级多维贫困测度及贫困类型划分*——基于重庆市1 919个市级贫困村调研数据

[目的]精确测度村级多维贫困以及划分贫困类型,是当前提高贫困识别精准度,进一步推进农村精准脱贫的战略需求。[方法]文章基于重庆市1 919个市级贫困村的调研数据,构建地理资本视角下村域多维贫困测度指标体系,并采用多维贫困测度模型、指标贡献度模型和最小方差方法系统揭示了重庆市贫困村多维贫困程度、贫困类型及其空间分布特征。[结果](1)重庆市贫困村多维贫困程度呈两端大中间小的"哑铃状"结构,贫困程度极化特征显著,区域发展具有不平衡性。空间分布上,贫困村多维贫困程度呈从渝东北、渝东南分别向渝西地区逐渐减轻的特征,贫困村多维贫困程度存在明显的地域性差异;(2)重庆市贫困村贫困类型主要分为单资本缺失型、双资本缺失型、三资本缺失型、四资本缺失型4个类型,其占比分别为9.07%、20.27%、66.91%、3.75%,三资本缺失型是最主要的贫困类型。[结论]重庆市贫困村致贫因素复杂多样,需要根据各自的贫困特征,因地制宜地开展差别化的帮扶工作。科学推进精准扶贫战略,力争实现2020年全面脱贫。     

Empirical study on Chinese tourists’ perceived trust and intention to use biometric technology

This paper presents a theoretical model based on the Technology Acceptance Model combined with a perceived trust model. SPSS 23 and Amos 22 were used to analyze Chinese tourists’ responses regarding use of biometric technology in hotels and to assess whether their perception of trust – measured through five potential factors – affected their intention to use it. Chinese tourists traveling in Macau were recruited, and three types of biological identification technology were discussed. A total of 600 questionnaires were sent out, and 583 effective questionnaires were recovered. The results that in addition to perceived ease of use, other factors affected visitors’ perceptions of trust. The degrees of effectiveness, however, differed between the three biological identification technologies. Fingerprint technology was revealed to be the most trusted and accepted biometric technology.     

Measuring benefits from spatially-explicit surface water quality improvements: The roles of distance,scope, scale,and size

Programs to improve water quality do not improve all water bodies equally. Evaluation of the benefits of such programs must account for where improvements occur and the relative magnitude of improvements that occur in different places. This study uses a choice experiment survey to explore how the value to a household of a surface water quality improvement varies as a function of (i) the distance between the household and the affected streams and rivers, (ii) the degree to which the quality of the water has been improved, (iii) how many stream and river miles have been improved, and (iv) the sizes of the affected streams and rivers. Results show evidence that value declines with distance in an approximately linear way, weak evidence that large rivers are worth more than small rivers, and no evidence that willingness-to-pay is nonlinear in either the degree of water quality improvement or the number of stream miles improved. These results indicate that it may be defensible in applied work to value small, spatially-explicit water quality improvement projects independently and then sum over projects.     

集中连片特困地区扶贫产业发展的规模特征及其经济效率评价——以武陵山片区恩施自治州为例

[目的]在扶贫开发战略中成长起来的特色产业已经成为贫困地区经济发展和农民脱贫致富的支柱产业,特色产业的规模和经济效率直接决定着贫困地区脱贫致富能力。[方法]文章以茶叶、蔬菜代表武陵山片区湖北省恩施自治州扶贫产业,利用集中度指数、扩张弹性系数、单位面积的产值能力和产量能力以及单位产量的产值能力等指标进行扶贫产业发展的规模特征及其经济效率评价。[结果]“十一五”期间以来武陵山片区扶贫产业发展的产业地位逐渐提高、规模扩张优势显著、规模收益递增、投入规模扩张率高于产出规模扩张率、资源配置效率不断提高,比较经济效率差距持续扩大。[结论]扶贫产业亟待根据产业发展的生态化、集聚化和融合化等趋势,在规模扩张中强化特色产品的品质建设和效率优势品种生产专业化程度、提高生产技术水平以及完善产业化组织及其能力建设,提高扶贫产业的经济效率和致富能力。     

Potential Impact of Climate Change and Armed Conflict on Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study investigates the potential impact of climate change and armed conflict on inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The system-GMM for a panel of 35 SSA countries is employed using annual data from 1997 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that armed conflict and climate are major drivers of inequality in SSA. The direct impact of the two determinants is more than the indirect impact. Also, the impact of armed conflict is more than the climate change. The coefficients of population growth, output growth, unemployment, natural rent, exchange rate and inflation rate are significant positive predictors of inequality in the SSA. The study advocates for a multidisciplinary inclusive growth strategy that prioritises the climate change reversal, de-escalation of armed conflict, population control, reduction of the unemployment rate and increasing informal sector productivity, to promote inclusive growth and reduce inequality. However, sequencing the policy targets relative to the magnitude of their impact on inequality is extremely crucial.     

Factors influencing consumers' purchase decision-making in O2O business model: Evidence from consumers' overall evaluation

Online-to-offline (O2O) has become a rapidly growing e-commerce model worldwide, but the factors influencing consumers' purchase decision-making have not been examined well. After exploring the working mechanism of the O2O model, we extract eleven indexes of consumers' overall evaluation in the O2O model with Crawlzilla and R techniques. Social network analysis (SNA) is adopted to build social networks reflecting consumers' overall evaluation in the O2O model. Based on the modified social network and the extracted subgraph, this study (N = 768) reveals consumers' overall evaluation behavior patterns in the O2O model by calculating network density, central potential, edge betweenness. The results show that shoppers overall evaluate the eleven indexes, especially perceived product quality, online product price, promotion intensity, business reputation, and product brand, which reflects the significant associations between the indexes. Among all the eleven evaluation indexes, perceived product quality, online product price, and business reputation dominate consumers’ decision-making behavior. When making purchase decisions, consumers not only overall consider online product price, perceived product quality, and business reputation but also balance perceived product quality, business reputation, and promotion intensity. Finally, we make some suggestions on marketing strategy for e-commerce companies.     

老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

Salvador Allende's development policy: Lessons after 50 years

Last year, 2020, was the 50th anniversary of the opening of the ‘Chilean road to socialism’ by Salvador Allende. Although the Allende government is the political reference for the 'socialism of the 21st century’ in Latin America, international supporters tend to disregard the primary cause of its downfall, focusing instead on the circumstances of Allende's death. This article explains the link between the Allende government's development policies and its macroeconomic outcomes between 1970 and 1973. It finds that Chile's economic collapse had an endogenous cause related to government policies. This supports the views of Mises and Hayek on the feasibility of socialist economic policies. Policymakers and commentators should recognise essential lessons from the Chilean experience to learn from past errors and effectively promote Latin America's economic development.     

Time-series and cross-sectional momentum in anomaly returns

We find strong evidence of time-series and cross-sectional momentum in the long–short returns of a comprehensive sample of anomalies. Strategies that exploit such persistence deliver significant abnormal returns that are robust to the stock momentum effect, cannot be explained by traditional asset-pricing models, and are more pronounced when arbitrage capital is scarcer or market liquidity is lower. Momentum in anomaly returns dissipates but does not reverse, in the long-run. Our findings are consistent with limits-to-arbitrage and slow-moving capital causing mispricing to persist. Supporting this explanation, we find that both the level and persistence of anomaly returns are positively related to idiosyncratic volatility.